Meteorologists are Marveling at Astronomical Ocean Temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico Heading into Hurricane Season

Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are soaring above average early on in the season this year. Meteorologists are concerned this will make for an extreme hurricane season.

Gulf of Mexico
Water in the Gulf is hot and will only get hotter as the year progresses.

Reaching over 16 Kj/cm2 above normal, the Gulf of Mexico is steaming up reaching record high energy content for this early in the year. With this excess energy, the basin has become astonishingly warm, surpassing last year’s record that seemed crazy at the time.

While hurricanes in the Atlantic make their start off the coast of Africa, they often gain strength in the Gulf of Mexico before hitting the US. The protected gulf does maintain water temperatures higher than the open ocean, but the astronomical temperatures this year will add even more energy to the massive storms.

Stark differences year to year

Last year, meteorologists were shocked at how warm the Gulf of Mexico was at the beginning of June. This year, temperature maps of the basin completely dwarf last years above average temperatures. The basin is averaging over 16 Kj/cm2 above the 2013-2023 average energy.

2024 energy content this June is closer to the average energy we would see in July for the basin. At this rate, the Gulf will easily surpass record temperatures and could fuel some early season major hurricanes.

Last year was the 4th most active hurricane season on record, with above average heat content in the Atlantic playing a role. However, at this time last year, the temperature and energy in the Gulf of Mexico were below average. The basin warmed very quickly over the following months, but if we were to see a similar pattern this year, the Gulf Coast is in for a devastating hurricane season.

Very well-defined Loop Current early in the year

In the Gulf of Mexico there is a current pattern that plays a significant role in hurricane development: the Loop Current in the Gulf Stream. Through the warmer months, the Loop climbs its way north towards the gulf coast, funneling warm water along with it. Usually at this time of the year, the Loop is barely identifiable, remaining close to Cuba.

As we can see in the graph below, very warm sea surface temperatures are widespread across the Gulf. This means wherever a hurricane may track across the gulf, it'll have fuel to strengthen the system.

However, this year, the Loop Current is already well defined in northern portions of the Gulf. Eventually, an eddy will break off the Loop and drift westward. This will leave warm, energized water across the basin ready to fuel hurricanes.

Another time when we saw a pattern like this with a Loop Current Eddy detaching from the Gulf Stream during hurricane season is when Hurricane Katrina was developing. The warm eddy caused the system to develop rapidly into a category 5 hurricane that devastated the Gulf Coast. The Gulf is shaping up to fuel more extreme and devastating hurricanes this season.