Deaths from extreme heat predicted to triple in Europe by 2100
Deaths from heat could triple in Europe by 2100, mostly among people living in southern parts of the continent, according to new research.
Climate change has already caused the global average temperature to rise by 1.2°C above that experienced before the industrial revolution. Scientists believe that this will increase to 3°C by the end of the century if governments do not do more to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
Now scientists have modelled how this change will affect deaths from heat and cold across Europe, in a study published in The Lancet Public Health journal. The research is based on data from 854 European cities, and more than 1,000 regions across 30 countries.
Under a 3°C rise, the number of heat-related deaths in Europe could increase from 43,729 to 128,809 by the end of the century. The number varies widely according to region, with 0.6 deaths per 100,000 people, up to 47 per 100,000.
The lowest rates are in the UK and Scandinavian countries, and highest in Croatia and the southernmost parts of the continent, including Spain, Italy, Greece and parts of France.
The impacts of a changing climate are exacerbated by an increase in the number of people reaching old age. Elderly people are more vulnerable to both cold and heat.
Narrowing gap
Currently, around eight times more people in Europe die from cold than heat, but this gap is projected to decrease significantly by the end of the century, with a slight decrease in deaths attributed to cold from 363,809 to 333,703 by 2100.
Deaths from cold will range from 25 to 300 deaths per 100,000 people. Eastern Europe is predicted to experience a moderate fall in deaths, and parts of Germany, France, Italy and Portugal will see a slight fall.
However, cold-related deaths are estimated to increase in Ireland (where they will almost double), Norway and Sweden, where large increases in citizens aged 85 years and older are expected.
Protecting the vulnerable
Dr David García-León, of the Joint Research Centre at the European Commission, said: “Our study identifies hotspots where the risk of death from high temperatures is set to drastically increase over the next decade.”
There is a critical need for the development of more targeted policies to protect these areas and members of society most at risk from temperature extremes, he added.
News reference:
García-León, David et al. Temperature-related mortality burden and projected change in 1368 European regions: a modelling study
The Lancet Public Health