Space Traffic Lights Will Protect Earth From Solar Storms
European and American researchers have created a space weather prediction model capable of anticipating geomagnetic events, giving us time to protect critical infrastructure such as satellites and power grids.
Despite technological advances, we are still at the mercy of natural phenomena that can compromise our safety. Solar or geomagnetic storms are a good example of this: they are difficult to predict and their consequences can be unpredictable.
This is, in fact, the mission of the PAGER project, a program funded by the European Union, which has created a spatial traffic light system to predict geomagnetic storms .
The international team, with researchers from European and US academia and industry, is currently testing an innovative space weather prediction system that could anticipate the arrival of solar storms, giving us more time to protect our critical infrastructure.
What Are Geomagnetic Storms?
A geomagnetic storm occurs when a powerful eruption from the Sun strikes our planet. The solar wind carries charged particles of energy that disrupt Earth's protective magnetic field , potentially jeopardizing the operation of satellites and other critical services, such as power grid systems.
Since 1958, when the first space research began, we have known the extent to which our modern way of life is threatened by solar phenomena . If the Sun suddenly enters a more active period, it can unleash geomagnetic storms capable of destroying satellites and causing blackouts on Earth .
Sensitive Area in the Radiation Belt
Most satellites operate in Earth's radiation belts, a region of space located about 58,000 kilometers above the planet, where particles are trapped by Earth's magnetic field.
These are therefore sensitive corridors, where GPS satellites are located and which, during storms, can be damaged. Although modern spacecraft are well protected, higher-energy particles can penetrate the shielding and cause serious damage .
Accidents With Million-dollar Losses in Space
These aren't just hypothetical scenarios. Such geomagnetic storms have already affected space facilities several times . In February 2022, the American company SpaceX lost 38 of its Starlink internet satellites after a severe geomagnetic storm.
The American company Intelsat also lost control of its Galaxy 15 satellite in April 2010 due to a geomagnetic storm. The device drifted, threatening other space objects. The risk could be enormous, with losses amounting to millions of euros.
Blackouts and Service Interruptions on Earth
Geomagnetic storms also pose a danger to terrestrial infrastructure . Electrical currents carried by solar winds can overload power plants and cause temporary blackouts. This is precisely what happened in Quebec, Canada, in 1989, when a geomagnetic storm caused a widespread blackout that lasted nine hours.
In October and November 2003, very strong storms also caused the interruption of numerous satellite services, disrupting communications, power grids and GPS navigation in many regions of the planet .
Both Europe and the United States have space weather centers that can predict when these solar phenomena might affect Earth. But until very recently, these calculations weren't associated with predictive models capable of anticipating how radiation would interfere with satellites or Earth-based infrastructure .
Algorithms and Weather Forecasts
This is the gap that the PAGER project aims to fill. Between 2020 and 2023, American and European researchers developed an algorithm that collected data not only from satellites orbiting the Earth, but also from telescopes and satellites observing the Sun.
Since harmful radiation for satellites can take a few more days to accumulate, the system could give experts some time to take measures and prepare to minimize the storms' effects.
Red, Yellow and Green Alerts
The algorithm designed by the PAGER team is now being tested to determine its predictive capacity and accuracy. The project is very similar to a traffic light system, but supported by predictions.
When they encounter a red light , terrestrial and satellite power grid operators put their equipment into safety mode . Yellow means you should be aware of the potential effects , while green indicates there's no reason to be alert.
However, forecasting still needs to be improved to estimate the likelihood of these events occurring over a longer horizon and to increase the margin of maneuver from a few days to several weeks.
But this is a mission in constant progress, one that could soon benefit from technologies such as machine learning and the integration of an ever-increasing amount of real-time data and measurements.
News references:
- Jonathan O'Callaghan. Space researchers build traffic light system to warn of dangerous solar storms . Horizon EU Research&Innovation Magazine